Overthinking? Understand the psychology behind it

Research from Susan Nolen-Hoeksema, a psychology professor at the University of Michigan, found that overthinking is a habit that occurs mostly in young and middle-aged adults. Of those who participated in the study, 73% of people between the ages of 25-35 identified as being overthinkers, with women (57%) tending to overthink more than men (43%).

Can you relate?

We often think that not being able to make the right decision is usually a matter of not having enough information at hand. In other words, we tend to associate the amount of information with the accuracy of our judgment. 

For situations requiring some analysis or decision-making, there are a plethora of variables to consider. We tend to categorise and assess these variables based on their perceived importance, their relation to other variables, and how they affect each other. These elements make up our  "mental model" for coming to a decision; and every single one of us usually has a slightly different mental model that is shaped by our personal beliefs and assumptions.

We have been taught from childhood that the more we can understand the environment in which we are called upon to make a decision, the better the outcome will be. As a result, many of us hold the belief that the more information we acquire, the better our judgment will be. Accumulating as much information as possible might indeed be beneficial in some scenarios, but for most decisions – especially ones regarding our personal growth – this might not be the case.

Influence and Decision-Making

Back in 1972, a psychologist named Paul Slovic conducted the following experiment to see how information impacts the decision-making process. He gathered eight professional horserace handicappers (people who bet on the outcome of horse races) and asked them to predict the winners of 40 horse races in four different rounds. He presented them with 88 variables; for example, the weight of the jockey, the number of days since the horse's last race, the percentages of races in which a horse finished first, and so on. On the first round, he told them they could only choose 5 of these variables to make their predictions. On the second round, they could pick 10 variables. On the third, 20 and at the final fourth round they could choose 40 variables to predict the winning horses. On top of that, he asked them to state their level of confidence in each round. All eight handicappers made their choices and placed their bets based on the variables they wanted for each round.

When the handicappers' predictions were compared with the actual outcomes of the first round (where they chose five variables), their average accuracy was 17%. When they compared the results of the races where they used ten variables, their average accuracy was 17%. When they compared the results of the races where they used 20 variables, their average accuracy was 17%. And when they compared the results in the round where they used 40 variables? You guessed it! Their average accuracy was still 17%!

Interestingly, although their accuracy remained the same for all rounds, their level of confidence in their bets increased dramatically as the number of variables they were able to choose from increased. This false sense of certainty could have led them to place higher bets and, therefore, lose more money.

So how does Slovic’s experiment relate to your personal development?  His findings suggest that even if you have all of the information in the world to help you make a decision in your life, your confirmation bias – not the likelihood of the desired outcome – is the only thing that increases after a certain amount of information. The more information you accumulate, the more you feed your confidence about how right your decision is. The accuracy of your choice, however, remains unchanged.

How much is enough?

So now a good question you might ask is "what amount of information is enough and when will I know that?"

While there is no clear answer, there are many mindfulness practices that help develop our ability to be discerning with the information we do have. As a starting place, simply having the self-awareness to know when new information affects your decision-making might be able to save you from wasting valuable time with overanalysing. We usually receive four types of extra information:

1. Having more details about variables we already know: This is when we go circles to evaluate new information about existing variables. Usually, you will find further information to support your existing beliefs about a subject.

2. Identifying additional variables: As with the horse racing experiment described above, this is when completely new information comes to our attention, and we utilise this information to calibrate our decisions. Hopefully, by now you can see that a few, critical, variables are enough to affect your judgment more efficiently than a much broader spectrum of information.

3. Having additional knowledge that affects the value attached to each variable: For example, in the horse race experiment, if a handicapper were to learn that a jockey he thought was 60 kilos was actually 10 kilos heavier. The initial value (or perceived importance) of a variable can change, which might lead you to adjust your decision.

4. Having additional knowledge that affects how different variables relate to each other: In the horse race example again, the handicappers were free to choose which 5 of the 88 variables to base their bets on. Which means that according to their mental model, they prioritised some variables more than others and they built their mental model based on their choices, for example: "Is the weight of the jokey more, or less, important than the rest of the 87 other variables?" Any extra knowledge that could influence your judgment of the variables you choose can affect your entire mental model.

Taking Action

As many say, overthinking is the art of creating problems that were never there. We can sometimes feel paralysed with inaction when we are overwhelmed with too much information. When it comes to your personal growth, few things can be as harmful as overanalysing and overthinking.

Designing a better life or designing a better business, means that you need to start acting as soon as you can with the information you already have available. Creating your personal development plan starts with what you currently know — not with what you think you need to know in order to start. Thinking will not help you overcome the obstacles, action will.

Are you preoccupied with thoughts about what steps you need to take to reach your business or personal development goals? Without overthinking it, what is the minimum necessary action you can take now?